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Oil shortage could spark conflicts in world: SIPRI

* Calls Iran’s influence the most disturbing factor in the region

STOCKHOLM: The prospect of a future scarcity of oil and gas could lead to conflicts in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, South America and Southeast Asia, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said on Monday.

“Although most states would regard actual armed conflict as an extreme measure, intra-state conflicts with an energy resource dimension are likely to occur, particularly in Africa,” the institute warned in its 2006 yearbook published on Monday.

“The strategic importance of geographical areas with rich oil and gas reserves will certainly rise: not only the Middle East but also Africa, Central Asia, South America and Southeast Asia will be areas of potential conflict in the coming decades,” it said.

Energy security concerns were based on the rising global demand for energy, a tight oil market, high oil prices, rising import dependencies and the prospect of a future shortage of oil and gas.

“Concerns are also intensified by external events such as terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure, power blackouts, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and instability in some producing countries,” the report said.

In the Middle East, “perhaps the most disturbing factor that may shape the future security dynamics of the region is the continuing expansion of Iran’s influence”, it said.

It said Iran could “at any moment” try to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint where 17 million barrels of oil pass through each day, or about 20 percent of the global supply.

SIPRI said national and international approaches to energy security needed to be re thought, adding that nationalistic approaches, as seen in many consumer and producer countries today, were “not a good recipe”.

“Wider international cooperation could build more trust and release tensions between major market players, thus improving the future security of oil and gas supply for all,” it said.

“Only a breakthrough in the development of alternative energy sources, and particularly in alternative fuels for transport, could significantly change parts of the above forecast,” it added.

The development of nuclear energy would however “create new security concerns”. afp

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